#Central Bank Survey

Year-end inflation expectation increased in the Central Bank survey

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) published its August Market Participants Survey, conducted with 69 participants from the real and financial sectors, as well as professionals. According to the survey, the August CPI increase expectation, which was 2.17% last month, rose to 2.55% in this survey period. The year-end CPI increase expectation rose from 42.95% to 43.31%. The CPI increase expectation for 12 months later decreased from 30.02% to 28.71%, and for 24 months later, it decreased slightly from 19.32% to 19.30%. Participants' year-end USD/TRY exchange rate expectation fell from 37.3667 to 37.2760, while the 12-month USD/TRY exchange rate expectation increased from 41.5175 to 42.0348. The year-end current account deficit expectation, which was $27.6 billion in the previous survey period, decreased to $25.5 billion in this period. The current account deficit expectation for next year also decreased to $25.7 billion. The policy rate expectation for the end of the current month is 50%. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth expectation for the current year remained stable at 3.4%, while the expectation for next year fell to 3.5%. The policy rate expectation for the end of the current month is 50%, while the expectation for three months later decreased to 48.10%. The policy rate expectation for 12 months later also decreased from 34.57% to 33.30%.